Macro views, translated into a verifiable allocation
Three parallel groups (Base / Bull / Bear), cross-asset, paper portfolio. NAV updates daily; rebalance and commentary post monthly. Not investment advice — a public, systematic log of a research workflow.
Current allocation · 2025-12-01
details →| Asset | Base | Bull | Bear |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSI 300 510300.SH | 10% | 14% | 5% |
| CSI 500 510500.SH | 8% | 12% | 3% |
| Hang Seng Index ^HSI | 8% | 10% | 4% |
| S&P 500 SPY | 10% | 13% | 5% |
| NASDAQ 100 QQQ | 5% | 8% | 2% |
| CN 10Y Treasury ETF 511260.SH | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| CN Credit (CityInvest) 511220.SH | 10% | 5% | 10% |
| US 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) TLT | 7% | 5% | 10% |
| Gold ETF GLD | 12% | 15% | 13% |
| Cash (Money Market proxy) 511990.SH | 10% | 8% | 18% |
Behind the book: the AI agent research pipeline
vN.3 · researchSee how a DAG of single-purpose agents turns the macro regime into a reviewable proposal — explicit hypothesis, out-of-sample search, a red-team DSR gate, real asset-shock stress re-sim, and a hard human gate. Fully audited, offline. View →
About this site
x-forecast is a paper portfolio reflecting the author’s macro views — not a fund, not advisory, not accepting capital. Goals:
- Translate macro research into traceable allocation decisions
- Use monthly attribution to route excess return back to macro factors, not just NAV
- Benchmark publicly against 60/40, equal-weight, and risk-parity to test whether views actually add value
Sister sites: economic-forecasting.com forecasts macro indicators; macro-forecast.com produces monthly allocation views; this site closes the loop with actual paper-portfolio performance.
Last NAV update: 2026-07-10T10:32:27.