Paper Portfolio · Live
Macro views, translated into a verifiable allocation
Three parallel groups (Base / Bull / Bear), cross-asset, paper portfolio. NAV updates daily; rebalance and commentary post monthly. Not investment advice — a public, systematic log of a research workflow.
base
105.38
+5.38%
since inception
bull
107.40
+7.40%
since inception
bear
103.02
+3.02%
since inception
Base 105.38
(+5.38%)
Bull 107.40
(+7.40%)
Bear 103.02
(+3.02%)
NAV starts at 100 · 125 trading days · last update 2026-05-25
Current allocation · 2025-12-01
details →| Asset | Base | Bull | Bear |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSI 300 510300.SH | 10% | 14% | 5% |
| CSI 500 510500.SH | 8% | 12% | 3% |
| Hang Seng Index 159920.SZ | 8% | 10% | 4% |
| S&P 500 SPY | 10% | 13% | 5% |
| NASDAQ 100 QQQ | 5% | 8% | 2% |
| CN 10Y Treasury ETF 511260.SH | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| CN Credit (CityInvest) 511220.SH | 10% | 5% | 10% |
| US 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) TLT | 7% | 5% | 10% |
| Gold ETF 518880.SH | 12% | 15% | 13% |
| Cash (Money Market proxy) 511990.SH | 10% | 8% | 18% |
macro view 起点位置 (2026-05): 美联储 5 月 FOMC 维持利率不变, 市场定价年内 1-2 次降息;
美国通胀核心 PCE 仍黏在 2.5-2.7% 区间, 劳动力数据 (NFP / 初请) 走弱但尚未 capitulation;
10Y UST 4.3% 附近 2y 4.8% 仍倒挂; 国内 5 年期 LPR 维持, M2 / 社融温和.
Base case (60%): 美降息推迟, 美元高位震荡, 国内政策托底但弱复苏; A 股震荡偏弱, 美股估值高位有调整压力, 黄金支撑.
Bull case (25%): 美联储确认 9 月降息, 美元转弱, 资金回流 EM, A 股 + 黄金双升.
Bear case (15%): 通胀反弹, 降息推迟到 2027, 美元再走强 7.3+, A 股二次探底.
About this site
x-forecast is a paper portfolio reflecting the author’s macro views — not a fund, not advisory, not accepting capital. Goals:
- Translate macro research into traceable allocation decisions
- Use monthly attribution to route excess return back to macro factors, not just NAV
- Benchmark publicly against 60/40, equal-weight, and risk-parity to test whether views actually add value
Sister sites: economic-forecasting.com forecasts macro indicators; macro-forecast.com produces monthly allocation views; this site closes the loop with actual paper-portfolio performance.
Last NAV update: 2026-05-25T18:03:20.