Credibility / Audit trail · Beta

Provenance (Point-in-Time)

On every trading day this site freezes its complete published state (NAV / regime / CMA / decisions) into one append-only record, with a content hash (data_sha) and commit hash (git_sha). This is the cryptographic answer to "how do you prove that, looking back at a given day, you only saw the information available that day" — and the prerequisite for honest forecast scoring later.

Verifiability commitments

✓NAV, decisions and rebalances are append-only; their content is never edited. One disclosed exception: on 2026-09-13 the full git history was rewritten once to remove personal information — every data_sha content hash and OpenTimestamps anchor is unaffected; the complete pre-rewrite snapshot (including the old→new commit mapping) is kept in the maintainer’s local backup and can be opened to reviewers on request.
✓Daily updates are auto-committed by GitHub Actions — the server-side push timestamp is hard to forge, serving as publish-time proof for each signal.
✓Restatements are logged, not hidden — e.g. the INC-2026-001 price-scale incident was publicly restated with the prior version preserved; bad history is never erased.
✓OpenTimestamps is wired into the daily job: each trading day the hash of vintages.jsonl is anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain (proofs in ots-proofs/), giving a third-party timestamp independent of git/GitHub; verify with `ots verify`.

Ledger status

Frozen snapshots

Range

2026-06-17 → 2026-09-18

Latest NAV

2026-09-18 · 102.7421

Latest snapshot (2026-09-18):

US regime Q4 (2026-04) · CN regime Q2 (2026-04) · decisions 0/1 closed

data_sha: 5fda7e0f9d984a2e9190a00e61828cb2997a4676948e81a5a571d20600f77a26

git_sha: bd7ad0f2a4cba4ac49455c0f73dcad8ff2068a60

Note: git_sha records the pre-rewrite (2026-09-13 privacy rewrite) commit hash and is intentionally kept as historical reference — the mapping is in the maintainer’s local backup. data_sha and OTS anchors are content-based and unaffected.

How to verify independently

The verification method is fully specified below. The repository is private during the author’s job search and can be opened to reviewers / employers on request — with repo access, anyone can recompute a row’s data_sha and check that commit’s server-side timestamp on GitHub:

# With repository access granted:
python scripts/snapshot_vintage.py     # idempotent: recompute a row’s data_sha; no append if unchanged
# Check the server-side timestamp of a daily commit (publish-time proof)
git log --format='%H %cI' -- data/vintages.jsonl
# Independently verify a given day’s record on the Bitcoin blockchain (independent of git/GitHub)
ots verify ots-proofs/vintages-YYYYMMDD.jsonl.ots

Ledger file: data/vintages.jsonl · generated by: scripts/snapshot_vintage.py · repository access available on request

Point-in-time / vintage discipline is the credibility bedrock of institutions (JPMaQS, Research Affiliates’ forecast scorecard). This ledger grows each trading day; once enough samples accumulate it will drive forecast scoring on /track-record.