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Disclaimer

x-forecast.com is a personal research log maintained by an independent researcher (x-forecast Research). The site documents a paper portfolio that reflects the author's macro views. The following disclaimer applies to all content on this site, including but not limited to NAV calculations, allocation decisions, methodology descriptions, attribution analyses, and any commentary.

1 · Not investment advice

Nothing published on this site constitutes investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. The site is a research log and a methodological exercise — not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or financial instrument. The author is not a registered investment advisor. Readers should consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.

2 · Paper portfolio only

All allocations, weights, and NAVs published on this site refer to a paper (hypothetical) portfolio. No real capital is at risk. No subscription, fee, or compensation is accepted or solicited. The portfolio is not held in any brokerage account, and no trades are executed based on its allocations.

3 · Methodological simplifications

NAV calculations exclude transaction costs, slippage, taxes, and FX conversion (for offshore assets in v1). The simplifications are documented in the methodology page (§9, "Known limitations") and the whitepaper. Reported returns will systematically diverge from those an investor would realise in a live account implementing the same allocation.

4 · Forward-looking statements

Any forward-looking statement — including capital market assumptions, regime tilts, expected return ranges, or scenario simulations — represents the author's view at the time of publication. Future events may differ materially. No forward-looking statement should be relied upon as a forecast that is more accurate than the average market view.

5 · Data accuracy

Price and macroeconomic data are sourced from third parties (yfinance, akshare, FRED, Tushare, GDELT, e-Stat). The author makes no warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any data displayed. Data revisions by upstream providers may cause historical numbers to change without notice.

6 · No liability

The author accepts no liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or any other loss arising from any use of, reliance on, or reference to any content of this site. By accessing or using this site, you agree that any decision you make based on its content is your sole responsibility.

7 · Jurisdiction and applicable law

Local laws applicable to investment advisory and to publicly maintained portfolios vary by jurisdiction. Readers should consult their local regulations regarding the use and interpretation of such content.

8 · Contact

Questions about this disclaimer or about any specific content should be addressed to the author via the contact details on /about. Updates to this disclaimer are timestamped via the public Git repository.

Last updated: 2026-05-26