Regime · Live

Macro Regime

Growth × Inflation 4-quadrant placement + tactical allocation matrix.

1 · Current position

Plots the current month on (growth momentum, inflation momentum) axes. Borrowed from Bridgewater All Weather (Dalio 1996); not original framework.

美 5 月 FOMC 维持利率, 市场定价年内 1-2 次降息. 国内政策托底但弱复苏. 通胀粘性主要来自能源 + 服务.

China "Money × Credit" Clock

The Merrill Lynch clock (growth × inflation) has ~40% directional hit-rate in China (third-party claim, not independently replicated here). A "money (funding rate) × credit (TSF/M2)" framework reaches ~73%. CN assets read off this clock; USD assets off the growth × inflation clock above — the de-facto framework used by Chinese bank WM / insurers / mutual funds.

2026-04 · Q2 · Easy money + Tight credit

OW duration/rates, defensive equity

社融存量同比 sf_yoy = 7.8% · M2 同比 = 8.6%

信用信号 (社融−M2) = -0.8pp → credit_z = -0.536

DR007 月均 = 1.349% → money_axis = 1.96

信用轴 = 5y 滚动 z(社融存量同比 − M2同比); 货币轴 = −5y 滚动 z(DR007 月均)。数据源: Tier 0 数据湖 EDB 长史 (社会融资规模存量:期末同比 / M2:同比 / DR007, 权威成交量加权口径)。框架动机引自泽平宏观货币信用时钟 (其 73% vs 美林 40% 胜率为第三方主张, 本站未独立复现, 不作 alpha 声明)。

2 · Tactical allocation matrix

Tactical tilts across 5 asset classes (OW = overweight, N = neutral, UW = underweight) conditional on regime. Same template as BlackRock BII quarterly outlook.

Asset class	6-month view	12-month view	24-month view	note
CN Equity	N	OW	OW	估值低位 + 政策预期
US Equity	UW	N	N	估值高位, 等待 EPS 修正
Duration	OW	OW	N	降息周期开启
Credit	N	N	UW	利差已收敛
Commodities	OW	OW	OW	去美元化 + 地缘

OW = overweight · N = neutral · UW = underweight

3 · Historical regime trajectory

One point per month; 12 monthly points on the same quadrant chart trace the regime path. v1 has only the current point; needs ≥6 months of points to be informative.

Framework borrowed from: Bridgewater All Weather (1996) + Hedgeye GIP + BlackRock BII Tactical Matrix.