x-forecast · paper portfolio
Research · Beta · v1.0 draft

Whitepaper · Methodology

arXiv-style 8–15 page methodology paper. Cited from resume appendix and home page.

v1.0 released: 2026-05-26 released

10 sections, ~3900 words, with full reference list. Both PDF and markdown source are committed to the public repo at the same SHA.

Table of contents (v1.0)

  1. 1 · Motivation
  2. 2 · Three-group structure (Base / Bull / Bear)
  3. 3 · Asset universe
  4. 4 · Monthly discipline
  5. 5 · Attribution framework (Brinson + 5 macro β)
  6. 6 · Regime overlay (Bridgewater-style 4-quadrant)
  7. 7 · Stress testing
  8. 8 · Reproducibility
  9. 9 · Known limitations (v1)
  10. 10 · References
  11. A · Group weights (2026-06-01 inception)
  12. B · Reproducibility hash
  13. C · Reviewer credits

Versioning rule

Each update bumps the version (v1.0 → v1.1). Old versions are kept at /whitepaper/vX.Y.md (never overwritten). The resume link always points to the latest.